May. 16, 2019
Corn and soybean futures saw a major boost of around 3% each in today's session, on the heels of slower-than-expected planting progress for both crops noted by USDA in its weekly crop progress report out late yesterday. Winter wheat saw a similar spike in prices, with spring wheat capturing more modest gains of around 1%.
Only spotty showers are expected across the Midwest and Plains tomorrow, according to the latest 24-hour forecast from NCAR. But further out, NOAA's latest seven-day cumulative precipitation map shows another 2" or more rain could arrive in a corridor stretching from Texas to Minnesota and Wisconsin through May 21. Temperatures are trending mostly warmer than normal as the week progresses.
On Wall St., the Dow rebounded 339 points in afternoon trading to 25,664 after slumping more than 600 points yesterday on U.S.-China trade worries. Energy futures also reversed higher today, with crude oil, gasoline and diesel all up around 1% this afternoon. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
Corn prices finished Tuesday's session more than 3% higher after worries over a slow-planted U.S. crop intensified this week. May futures soared 13 cents to $3.6050, with July futures up 12.25 cents to $3.6875.
Corn basis bids were mostly narrowly mixed after moving as much as 2 cents in either direction Tuesday. An Ohio elevator bucked the trend, plummeting 12 cents lower today.
Just 30% of this year's corn crop has been planted as of May 12, according to USDA. That landed well below the average trade guess of 35% (but individual guesses varied widely, from 29% to 41%). Planting pace is also trending far behind 2018's rate of 59% and the five-year average of 66%.
Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr says if 75% of the crop has been planted by May 19, expect a 442-million bushel cut to yields. If 65% of the crop has been planted by then, that potential yield cut blooms to 906 million bushels.