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Price & supply trend: China’s market may fluctuate and even reverse due to Xiangshui explosion
Mar. 28, 2019
The 21st March explosion at the Tianjiayi Chemical Plant in Yancheng Xiangshui Industrial Park caused heavy casualties. After the incident, nation-wide actions were immediately taken to put in place safety checks on hazardous chemical production, warehousing and transportation enterprises to identify hidden dangers. The ongoing work safety-related measures and actions are resulting in more difficulties for production within industrial parks, where pesticide production is greatly affected. Suspension in production and restrictions in upstream industry sectors are leading to short supplies, and causing delays in the recovery of production in.
With the cumulative impact being generated, the gap between supply and demand has again widened. The market, which is expected to remain stable, might be affected, or may even goes into reverse. Close attention is required to be paid to pesticide supplies, as affected by the Xiangshui explosion.
Herbicide Market
There are many varities of herbicides being affected by the Xiangshui explosion, so the market needs to be watched closely. The glyphosate technical-oriented glycine market remains stable, and factories are still quoting at no more than Yuan25, 000 per ton. Downstream glyphosate technical buyers have started replenishments in small quantities, and consumption by terminal users has gradually begun.
Supplies of amide herbicide remain low, and inventories are not sufficient at each level of supplies. It is very possible that a limited supply situation will occur for a short period of time once all buyers begin normal purchasing.
The price of 2,4-D remains high, though purchases of bensulfuron-methyl technical at their high price levels have begun to decline, vendors are in competition to sell, and prices are expected to fall. Only a small number of oxadiazon technical manufacturers are operating, and short supplies are expected to continue, as affected by the delayed recovery of production in industrial parks in North Jiangsu, as a result of the Xiangshui accident.
The supply of quizalofop-p-ethyl technical and nicosulfuron technical still remains short, as supplies are restricted. Penoxsulam technical is quoted at the high level of Yuan1.68 million per ton, as affected by the short supply of intermediates.
The supply of oxyfluorfen technical and mesotrione technical has been greatly affected by the Xiangshui incident, resorcinol is in short supply and prices are rising, being sustained by the strong backup of costs. There is a high probability of a reversal in stabilized market prices and supply situations. Bentazone technical production in industrial parks has been ordered to suspend operations due to environmental compliance regulations, inventory is not sufficient at each level of supplies, and expected to gradually become short. The supply of cyhalofop-butyl technical has attracted close attention from both upstream and downstream factories, and the supply of upstream 3,4-difluorobenzonitrile and propionic acid still remains short, being a further impact from the Xiangshui incident, which needs to be watched.
Atrazine technical factories have higher level of stocks which rely on consumption of terminal markets, which are now being depleted slowly. The impact from the Xiangshui incident needs to be continually watched.
Part of herbicide prices detailed as below:
|
Product（TC）
|
100% basis/ actual concentration
|
Price（000 RMB/ton）
|
|
Glyphosate
|
95%
|
250
|
|
Glufosinate-ammonium
|
95%
|
147.0
|
|
2,4-D
|
98%
|
22.0
|
|
Bensulfuron-methyl
|
96%
|
225.0
|
|
Oxadiazon
|
95%
|
320.0
|
|
Quizalofop-P
|
100% basis
|
255.0
|
|
Nicosulfuron
|
100% basis
|
305.0
|
|
Penoxsulam
|
98%
|
1680.0
|
|
Oxyfluorfen
|
95%
|
162.0
|
|
Mesotrione
|
97%
|
230.0
|
Insecticide Market
Prices of upstream nicotine CCMP and CCMT remain high, but imidazolidine, ethyl N-cyanoethanimideate and oxadiazine have all declined, where factories and distributors suffer due to pressure from inventories, though the probability of stabilization of the market is high.
Malathion technical remains in short supply, fewer factories are running, and prices are high. The price of diethyl chlorothiophosphate has declined prices of its downstream profenofos technical, chlorpyrifos technical and phoxim technical are moving down.
Fipronil technical vendors are taking purchase orders at this moment, though production is not running at normal yet. Purchase orders are mostly for export.
The prices of pyrethroid’s upstream dimethyl-4-pentenoic acid methyl ester and m-phenoxybenzaldehyde remain high, and production of lambda cyhalothrin acid is not running at normal. Orders are being placed mostly for export; pyrethroid is in general being sustained by the backup of cost.
Part of insecticide prices detailed as below:
|
Product（TC）
|
100% basis/ actual concentration
|
Price（000 RMB/ton）
|
|
Malathion
|
90%
|
29.0
|
|
Profenofos
|
100% basis
|
70.0
|
|
Chlorpyrifos
|
97%
|
47.0
|
|
Imidacloprid
|
96%
|
162.0
|
|
Pymetrozine
|
100% basis
|
163.0
|
|
Fipronil
|
95%
|
720.0
|
|
Acetamiprid
|
97%
|
167.0
|
|
Lambda-cyhalothrin
|
96%
|
355.0
|
|
Clothianidin
|
97%
|
145.0
|
|
Thiamethoxam
|
97%
|
105.0
|
Fungicide Market
This week, the production of difenoconazole technical increased. The export of propiconazole technical is low due to high levels of inventories, and prices remain on the low side. Hexaconazole technical is in short supply, and demand is low. Tebuconazole technical production has been suspended, while intermediate prices and market quotations have risen. Fewer factories are running production of tricyclazole technical, and intermediate supplies are still restricted. The epoxiconazole technical production load is low, being supplied mostly for export.
There is fierce competition among pyraclostrobin technical vendors, downstream inventories are being depleted, and the market is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude. The supply of azoxystrobin technical has increased, while its cost effectiveness drops. The low-level price and the advantage of the cost effectiveness of pyraclostrobin technical are expected to have a significant impact on purchases of some fungicides.
Carbendazim technical and thiophanate-methyl technical factories are suffering great pressure from environmental compliance regulations, and inventory is at low level. Due to the Xiangshui explosion, close attention to supply of the intermediate o-phenylenediamine is required. The prochloraz technical production load is restricted, its inventory is low, price continues to rise and production output is seriously insufficient.
Small number of factories are running production of thifluzamide technical, though stocks on the market are running out. Dimethomorph technical, diethofencarb technical and iprodione technical are in short supply, and factories are running low.
Downstream demand gradually has begun, while stocks in factories and distributors are being eliminated, step by step, and purchases for replenishment have increased. With the continued cumulative impact from the Xiangshui accident, the nation-wide safety check and environmental compliance regulations will surely lead to declined production of pesticide technical and intermediates, which will result in reduced supplies, delays in the recovery of production in industrial parks, and increased imbalances between supply and demand. The stabilized market may still be off course and may even go into reverse. Close attention is required to be paid to trends in the pesticide market, as being affected by the Xiangshui explosion.
Part of fungicide prices detailed as below:
|
Product（TC）
|
100% basis/ actual concentration
|
Price（000 RMB/ton）
|
|
Difenoconazole
|
96%
|
225.0
|
|
Propiconazole
|
95%
|
118.0
|
|
Hexaconazole
|
95%
|
160.0
|
|
Tebuconazole
|
97%
|
140.0
|
|
Tricyclazole
|
95%
|
88.0
|
|
Pyraclostrobin
|
98%
|
190.0
|
|
Carbendazim (grey)
|
97%
|
34.0
|
|
Carbendazim (white)
|
97%
|
37.5
|
|
Thiophanate-methyl (grey)
|
97%
|
32.0
|
|
Thiophanate-methyl (white)
|
97%
|
33.0
|
|
Thifluzamide
|
95%
|
360.0
|
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Source: AgroNews
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