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Could Argentina be the answer to the soybean over supply?qrcode

Jul. 24, 2018

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Jul. 24, 2018
By Kevin Van Trump
 
Soybean prices are slightly higher this morning and have added about +30 cents from the beginning of the week. Bulls continue to see strong demand for U.S. soybeans.
 
Similar to corn, there have been several rumors that Argentina is snooping around in the U.S. market for supply. We continue to see the lack of Chinese buying being supplemented by other global purchasers. In other words, no real dramatic setback as of yet to U.S. export demand.
 
Bulls are also talking about dry conditions starting to weigh on the crop in some areas across the Midwest. Bears on the other hand, continue to point to perhaps longer-term trade conflicts with the Chinese, and no real certainty in regards to NAFTA.
 
Bears are also continuing to point towards burdensome domestic surplus and the possibility of another record U.S. crop. There's also talk of cooler and wetter weather in the days ahead, which could help stabilize soybean conditions moving forward. Bulls believe we will once again see crop-conditions pull back a bit on Monday as dry conditions continue to complicate in a few key areas.
 
The obvious question is how the weather plays itself out into August...stay tuned!
 
From a technical perspective, the longer-term bulls are still wanting to see the NOV18 contract close back above $9.00 per bushel, before they start to consider it a turnaround . Major support on the downside looks to be the low set back on Monday at $8.26^2 per bushel.
 
Some insiders are thinking we might be trapped in a range sideways to lower until the market learns more about Weather and Washington. I feel like that's probably correct...
 

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