2010/11 Ukrainian crop areas

2010/11 crop areas are estimated that wheat production at 19.5 million tons (compared to 20.9 million last year), barley at 10.5 (11.8) million, and corn at 11.5 (10.5) million, according to USDA report. The lower forecast output for wheat and barley is based on estimated year-to-year reductions in both area and yield, while the higher forecast for corn production is based on an increase in estimated area. Sunflower seed output is forecast to increase by 8 percent from last year, from 6.5 to 7.0 million tons, and rapeseed production is estimated at 2.0 million tons, up 0.1 million from last year.

Ukrainian crop productions (000 tons)
crop	2010/11	2009/10	Change %
wheat	19500	20900	-6.7
barley	10500	11800	-11.0
corn	11500	10500	+9.52
Sunflower seed	7000	6500	+7.69
rapeseed	2000	1900	+5.26

Winter Crops: Sown Area

The total area sown to 2010/11 winter crops last fall was similar to the previous year, with an increase in barley area roughly compensating for a decrease in rye area. Wheat was planted on 6.67 million hectares against 6.89 million the year before. Barley area increased by 0.32 million hectares, to 1.59 million, and rye area decreased by 0.19 million, to 0.30 million. The sown area for winter rape was essentially unchanged at 1.42 million hectares. Farmers reported that winter-crop planting was delayed in many areas due to persistent fall drought. (See October 21 report.) Abundant moisture and above-average temperatures in late October and November enabled winter crops to recover from the earlier dryness in most areas. Although the team observed individual winter-crop fields marked by poor emergence, the establishment of winter crops was generally good even in fields that showed evidence of subsequent frost damage.

2010/11 winter crop areas (000 hectares)
crop	2010/11	2009/10	Change %
wheat	6670	6890	-3.2
barley	1590	1270	+25.2
rye	300	490	-38.8
winter rape	1420	1420	0

Spring Planting Progress

According to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, spring grains were planted on 6.99 million hectares as of May 14, against the target figure of 7.6 million. By the same date last year, 7.02 million hectares had been planted against the target of 7.5 million. The planting of the later spring crops (chiefly sunflowers, corn, and sugar beets) was in the final stages by mid-May. As of May 14, sunflowers were planted on 3.5 million hectares (against the target of 3.7 million and compared to about 2.9 million by the same date last year), and corn was planted on 2.5 million hectares (against the target of 2.7 million and compared to 2.0 million last year). Sugar beets were planted on 0.48 million hectares, surpassing the target by 11 percent.

2010/11 spring crop areas (000 hectares)*
crop	2010/11	2009/10	Change %
spring grains	6990	7020	-0.43
sunflowers	3500	2900	+20.69
corn	2500	2000	25
Sugar beets	480	-	-
* ended May 14

Technology: Fertilizer, Chemicals, and Seed

Most analysts and producers indicated that the use of mineral fertilizers and plant-protection chemicals is unlikely to increase or decrease significantly from last year, but also noted that input use in 2009 was already down from the previous year. Direct government subsidies for agriculture have essentially disappeared over the past three years, although, as one veteran observer put it, “the promises get bigger every year.”

Furthermore, credit is tight for agricultural enterprises and the government no longer offers subsidies on commercial-credit interest although prevailing interest rates in Ukraine range from 25 to 35 percent. One bright spot is the continued increase in the use of hybrid sunflower and corn seed. The explosive growth in corn yield over the past ten years – from 2.5 tons per hectare in 1999 to 5.0 tons per hectare in 2009 – is attributable largely (but not exclusively) to the increase in the use of hybrid seed.