Soybean planted area expected to rise in US

That Friday’s USDA prospective plantings report will show an increase in 2017 soybean intentions compared to a year earlier pretty much seems a lock.

The only question now is how big the increase will be. And if you believe the results of a recent Doane/ProFarmer planting intentions survey of American farmers, it could be hefty.

Released in a webinar last week, the survey pegged 2017 American soybean intentions at 89.3 million acres, up about 7% from last year’s record of 84.3 million and 1.3 million acres above the estimate released at the USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook conference earlier this year. Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Reuters showed traders and analysts are generally only expecting a soybean planted area of 88.21 million acres.

Doane soybean analyst Bill Nelson attributed the bulk of the expected increase in nationwide soybean planted area to strong prices, combined with a reduction in corn intentions, and a much smaller U.S. winter wheat acreage.

“It was pretty close to a given that soybean plantings would be higher this year, in light of the favourable prices for soybeans compared to corn,” Nelson said, adding that with this year’s increase, total soybean planted area will nose its way into an acreage threshold typically reserved for corn.

Meanwhile, the Doane/ProFarmer survey put expected corn planted area at 90.9 million acres, down from 94 million a year earlier and just slightly above the early USDA forecast of 90 million. The Reuters poll put the average trade guess for corn at 90.96 million acres.

As for wheat, the Doane/ProFarmer survey pegged total U.S. planted area for 2017 at 45.9 million acres. That’s down 8.5% from a year ago, thanks mainly to an already reported 10% drop in winter wheat seeded area to 32.4 million acres, the second lowest on record.

U.S. spring wheat intentions for 2017 were reported at 11.5 million acres, down about 1% from a year ago but the smallest since 10.1 million in 1972. U.S. new-crop durum area is projected to fall about 400,000 acres from a year earlier to 2 million.

The Reuters poll found traders and analysts are expecting an all wheat acreage of around 46.14 million acres.