Dec. 23, 2016
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects Argentina to produce 3.3 million tons of sunflower, which would mean a sown area of 1.6M/ha. to the end of sowing season 2016/17 in the country, the planted area was up 39.3%.
As sowing comes to a close in the country, international oil prices, which had remained stable in October and November, rose by 3% in the early days of December. According to advisors from ASAGIR (Asociación Argentina de Girasol) traders purchase the first sunflower in the north for USD 270/tn, and give USD 8 more for the sunflower available in the southern ports.
The December 8 report of the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange shows that 98.4% of the projected area has already been planted, with a year-on-year fall of 1.6 percentage points. Sowing is complete in nearly 1.672 million hectares, and very little area remains to be sown.
Ninety eight per cent of the projected area was planted in southeastern Buenos Aires, and 95% in southeastern Buenos Aires and south of La Pampa.
Meanwhile, in the north of the country, the sunflower crop is at the grain filling stage under good conditions of humidity and sanitation. In the NEA region (Chaco province) the condition varies from good to excellent, with expectations of yields between 18 and 25 qq/ha. There is low sanitary pressure, although protective measures have been undertaken for septoria and fly control.
On the other hand, in the north-central part of Santa Fe province, the lots are in the first stages of grain filling while the later ones are still flowering. The condition of the crop is optimal.
North of La Pampa, west of Buenos Aires, the oleaginous difference between three and eight leaves shows adequate conditions of sanitation and humidity. In the south-east of Buenos Aires, lots remain in Bahia Blanca, Tres Arroyos, and Balcarce. The fields are transiting the emergency stages to leaf differentiation under conditions of regular humidity to low, which delay the normal growth of the oilseed.
Compared with November (according to the USDA report for that month), the production of the seven main oilseeds has gone up by 3.43 million tons, with increases of 1.9 million tons in soybean, 0.7 million tons in peanuts, and 0.6 million tons in sunflower.
Much of this increased of production (about 2.3M/tn) is now at the crushing stage, with 1.2M/tn of soybeans and 0.5M/tn of sunflower; 1.3M/tn and 0.4 M/tn have been added to the final soybean and peanut stocks, respectively.
Meanwhile, the increase in supply of the nine main oils is only 0.73M/tn, given the overwhelming presence of soybeans (low yield in oil) in the incremental quantity being crushed. As the total consumption was adjusted upwards by 1.3M/tn, there is practically no increase in the total final stocks of oils; in the case of sunflower, consumption was about 90,000 tons.
Compared with the 2015/16 season, world production of the seven main oilseeds will grow by 6.2% while consumption will increase by 3.9%. This will be met by an additional 4.4% of exports, while stocks will increase 5.9%.
Sunflower production will grow by 9.7% to 3.9M/tn (in December, the forecast was revised upwards by 576,000 tons, of which 500,000 tons are in Russia) while crushing will increase by 9.3%, exports will fall by 18% and stocks will fall 2%.
On the other hand, the stocks / consumption percentage will increase slightly for the seven oilseeds from 19.9% to 20.3%. For sunflower, it will reduce from 5.7% to 5.1%.
Returning to the USDA, sunflower offers from the European Union, Russia, and Argentina will also grow (8%, 14% and 22%, respectively).
The consolidated production of the three competitors in the northern hemisphere will increase from 28.7M/tn to 32.2M/tn (an increase of 12.3%).