China to increase soy imports, remain small grain importer by 2024

China, the world’s top buyer of soy, is projected to import 82.66 million tonnes of the oilseed in 2024, a rise of 15.8 percent from 2014, but it will remain a small net importer of rice, wheat and corn in the coming decade, according to an official forecast.

Corn imports by China, the world’s second-largest consumer, are unlikely to exceed 7.2 million tonnes in 2024 due to quota restrictions, as long as domestic supplies are sufficient, said the China Agriculture Outlook 2015-2024.

The predictions come after the U.S. Department of Agriculture abandoned an earlier forecast of soaring Chinese corn imports, slashing its estimate to 7.2 million tonnes in 2024-25.
“China has made progress in raising wheat and corn yields, but not rice and soybean yields. Soybean yields in particular are very low compared with the world average,” said Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with Beijing Orient Agri-business Consultant Co. Ltd.

China, the world’s top rice consumer, will import 3.2 million tonnes of the grain in 2024, said the report, which is published by the agriculture ministry and was posted on its website on Tuesday (www.farmer.com.cn).

That is a rise of 25 percent compared with 2014. The percentage changes derived from the data in the report were calculated by Reuters.

Imports of wheat in 2024 are forecast to be 2.8 million tonnes, the data showed, falling 5.7 percent from 2014.

Cotton imports in 2024 are estimated at 2.08 million tonnes, down 14.8 percent from 2014, because of lower Chinese textile exports and greater use of cotton substitutes, the report said.

“The decrease is likely as more and more domestic textile mills are moving outside the country,” said Ma.

China’s sugar imports were estimated at 5.83 million tonnes in 2024, a rise of 45 percent from 2014 due to shrinking domestic production and rising demand, the report said.

Dairy imports would grow three percent a year over the coming decade to 16 million tonnes, lower than the average of 15.5 percent growth over the past decade as China’s own production increases by an average of two percent annually.

Growth in meat consumption will also slow compared with the past 10 years, restricting pork imports to less than one million tonnes a year by 2024, while those of beef and lamb will be less than 500,000 tonnes each, it said.